(P32-11-26) Linear Modeling to Determine Lowest Cost Diets Associated With Meeting 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines

Objectives: Given the recent 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) focus on prioritization of high-quality, nutrient-dense protein foods as part of a healthy dietary pattern we used linear optimization techniques to evaluate if Americans can easily meet the new guidelines without dramatically increasing cost.

Methods: NHANES 2013-2023 24-hour dietary recall day 1 data for subjects age 4+ years were used in the present analysis. Optimized diets were created to meet intake adequacy for shortfall nutrients and DGA 2025-2030 food group intake recommendations (except % of calories from saturated fat was measured but was not a constraint ). Food category composites were calculated as a weighted sample intake of “healthy” food codes defined as meeting added sugar recommendations in the DGA for all Food Patterns Equivalent Database variables present in the food code. Several WWEIA food codes/categories were excluded in adherence to DGA 2025-2030 (e.g., white bread, tortillas, crackers, etc.). Protein goals were set at 1.2 and 1.6 g/kg of current body weight (BW). Dietary costs were estimated with Purchase to Plate National Average Prices (PPNAP; 2017-2018 prices were utilized for 2017-2023 data). Multiple linear optimization iterations were performed using SAS 9.4 with variation in the limit on category gram amount, maximization of the consumer preference of categories, and allowance of categories in optimization based on percentage of consumers across 12 calories levels (1200-2400 kcal/d) previously used by DGA.

Results: Optimizations allowing greater amounts of currently consumed foods were not able to meet intake requirements. Numerous optimizations were able to meet intake requirements with those meeting a protein goal of 1.2 g/kg BW reducing costs in 9 of 12 calorie levels (mean change: -11.4%) while a protein goal of 1.6 g/kg BW increased costs in 10 of 12 calorie levels (mean change: 9.4%). Saturated fat as a % of calories averaged 12.0 % at baseline and decreased to 10.5 and 8.8 % for protein goals of 1.2 g/kg BW and 1.6 g/kg BW, respectively.

Conclusions: In conclusion, significant modifications to current diets are required to meet the new DGA and may reduce costs at a protein goal of 1.2 g/kg BW however meeting a protein goal of 1.6 g/kg BW may increase costs.

Funding Sources: National Dairy Council