(OR16-04-26) Mind the Agriculture-Health-Gap: Aligning European Food Supply With National Dietary Guidelines and Planetary Health Diet

Objectives: National food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) are essential policy instruments designed to bridge nutritional science and public health, yet European adherence remains low. Because food environments are shaped in part by production, trade, and subsidies, we assessed if agricultural and trade systems actually supply food in alignment with dietary recommendations.

Methods: We conducted a dietary gap analysis for 35 European countries with FBDGs (as of April 15, 2026). Data on food supply and production were sourced from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets. FBDG recommendations were standardized into 11 food groups and harmonized with FAO commodity categories using a methodology adapted from Springmann et al. (2020). We benchmarked actual post-trade food supply against each nation’s respective FBDGs and the 2025 Planetary Health Diet (PHD) recommendations. In addition, we measured the self-sufficiency of domestic production capacities against status quo, FBDG-aligned, and PHD-aligned food supply scenarios.

Results: Analysis reveals systemic oversupply of animal-source foods and undersupply of plant-source foods. Red meat oversupply is the most extreme: 94% of European countries supply more than their FBDGs recommend; in aggregate, red meat is oversupplied 3.96x FBDG recommendations. Conversely, 80% of countries undersupply vegetables compared to their FBDG recommendations, and 76% undersupply legumes. At the aggregate European level, deficits are most pronounced for legumes (40% below recommended levels) and vegetables (38% below recommended levels).

When measured against the PHD, every single country analyzed oversupplies red meat by more than double (>2x), 91% oversupply it by more than triple (>3x), and 77% exceed the target by more than fivefold (>5x). In more populated countries, this oversupply reaches 5.7x in the UK and 7.5x in Spain.

In terms of domestic production, regionally, Europe produces 4.5x (462%) the amount of red meat required to match FBDGs, but only 61% of vegetable needs; only six countries (17%) produce sufficient vegetables to match their own FBDG recommendations. Under the PHD, European domestic production of red meat reaches 712% of recommendations, but meets only 71% vegetable and 55% of legume recommendations.

Conclusions: A massive gap exists in Europe between dietary guidelines and food supply. European food systems disproportionately favor food groups that should be limited while failing to supply those recommended for healthy, sustainable diets. Bridging this gap is essential for building a resilient food system.

Funding Sources: This research was financially supported by ProVeg International, a food awareness organization working to transform the global food system.