(P26-14-26) Modeling Avocado Ingredient Swaps in Mexican-Style Mixed Dishes: Nutrient and Cost Impacts in NHANES Adults

Objectives: To model population-level nutrient and ingredient cost impacts of reformulating commonly consumed Mexican-style mixed dishes by swapping avocado for ingredients high in saturated fat and/or sodium.

Methods: Cross-sectional dietary modeling using Day 1 24-h recall data from U.S. adults (≥19 y) in NHANES 2017–Mar 2020 and 2021–2023 who consumed any Mexican-style mixed dish (N=1,297). Nineteen dishes were recipe-modeled and reformulated with plausible avocado substitutions. Daily intake changes were simulated under 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% adoption of reformulated dishes and estimated with survey-weighted means (±SE). Per-serving ingredient costs were estimated for original vs reformulated recipes using national retailer prices (Dec 10, 2025).

Results: Across dishes, sodium decreased in 18/19 (−2.67 to −381.33 mg/serving) while fiber (+0.34 to +3.79 g/serving) and potassium (+10.63 to +278.67 mg/serving) increased. Among all consumers, modeled mean changes from 25% to 100% adoption were: energy −3.16±0.44 to −13.36±0.97 kcal/d; saturated fat −0.26±0.02 to −1.14±0.05 g/d; sodium −9.82±1.41 to −48.37±4.61 mg/d. Over the same range, fiber increased 0.55±0.05 to 2.21±0.10 g/d, potassium 22.71±3.12 to 115.72±16.72 mg/d, and folate 16.19±3.08 to 58.68±4.49 dietary folate equivalents /d; calcium and iron decreased (−7.44±0.94 to −34.37±2.04 mg/d; −0.07±0.01 to −0.26±0.02 mg/d). Summed per-serving recipe costs across dishes were $11.19 (original) vs $10.54 (reformulated), −$0.65.

Conclusions: Modeled avocado-based swaps in Mexican-style mixed dishes modestly improved nutrients of public health concern and slightly lowered ingredient costs, with larger benefits at higher adoption levels; real-world acceptability should be evaluated.

Funding Sources: None